The International Energy Agency (IEA) has said that the United States will overtake Saudi Arabia and Russia as the world’s top oil producer by 2016. However, according to the IEA, the West’s energy agency, by 2029, the oilfields in Texas and North Dakota will be past their prime and the Middle East will regain its dominance, particularly as a supplier to Asia.
The surge in shale oil production in the US has reversed a decline in its oil output. Although the IEA originally predicted that the States would surpass Riyadh in 2017, it has revised this forecast, stating that the re-ordering will happen earlier than expected.
According to IEA Chief Economist, Fatih Birol:
“We expect in 2015 the U.S. to be the largest oil producer in the world. We see two chapters in the oil markets. Up to 2020, we expect the light, tight oil to increase – I would call it a surge. And due to the increase coming from Brazil, the need for Middle East oil in the next few years will definitely be less. But due to the limited resource base (of U.S. tight oil), it is going to plateau and decline. After 2020 there will be a major dominance of Middle East oil.”
The IEA also said that oil prices would continue to rise and spur development of unconventional resources such as the light, tight oil that has fueled the U.S. oil boom, oil sands in Canada, deepwater production in Brazil and natural gas liquids.
- US will surpass Saudi Arabia as world’s top oil producer by 2016, according to the International Energy Agency – @Reuters (uk.reuters.com)
- U.S. Nears Energy Independence by 2035 on Shale Boom, IEA Says – Bloomberg (bloomberg.com)
- U.S. to become world’s top oil producer by 2015 on shale boom, IEA says (business.financialpost.com)
- Canada to emerge as the fourth-fastest growing oil player in the world: IEA (business.financialpost.com)